This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the paper titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) are replicated at least two times by independent researchers unaffiliated with the authors of this paper by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".  

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources and experts verifying the legitimacy of these replications.

If there is ambiguity as to whether replications under consideration for the resolution of this market are credible, this may remain open until July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, to allow for the publication of any replication results in a reputable journal. One such publication will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".  If no such paper is published by this delayed resolution time, this market will resolve to "No".


Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real?

2023 Global Heat Increase

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.03°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of 1.03°C or greater for 2023 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether prior years' figures are revised. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2023" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2023 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a wide consensus of credible media asserts definitively that extraterrestrial life or technology has contacted any of the human race by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Alien contact in 2023?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2023?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that any or all of the United States moon landings were faked becomes public by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Was the moon landing faked?

This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name 19 or more storms during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if NOAA names 19 or more storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” 

If 19 or more storms are named during the Atlantic hurricane season, the market will resolve to "Yes" immediately. Note: storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it are included in NOAA’s count. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

This market may only resolve to "No" after December 1, 2023, 12:00:00 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not occurred before then.

Will there be 19 or more named storms during the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.



Is the Earth flat?

This is a market group on SpaceX's starship reaching outer space.

Will SpaceX's Starship reach outer space by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a major hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between September 1 and September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at major hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may only resolve to "No" after September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.

For the purpose of this market, a major hurricane landfall is said to occur when a major hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher at the time of landfall.

This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a major hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement. 

Will a major hurricane make landfall in the US in September?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Mexico, any member of the Cabinet of the Mexico, or any Mexican federal agency definitively states that at least one of the Peruvian alien bodies presented to the Mexican Congress on Sep 12 are of extraterrestrial origin by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Mexico, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Are the Peruvian Aliens real?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between September 1 and September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may only resolve to "No" after September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.

For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.

This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.

Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in September?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the tropical storm system currently named Lee makes landfall in the conterminous US as a tropical storm, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/LEE.shtml).

If Lee does not hit the United States by September 25, 2023 ET, or otherwise dissipates before that date, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lee is not officially reported to be tropical storm at its time of landfall in the conterminous US or dissipates without making landfall in the conterminous US, this market shall resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market, a tropical storm is defined as a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph (34 to 63 knots), as described at https://www.weather.gov/mob/tropical_definitions, and a landfall is said to occur when the tropical storm's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether Lee has made landfall in the conterminous US at tropical storm strength strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.